The most popular nonferrous metals are ready to bl

Nonferrous Metals: spring has come and flowers are waiting to bloom

since the beginning of 2017, the supply side reform has been extended to the electrolytic aluminum industry. While strictly controlling the new production capacity, we cleaned up the illegal production capacity and implemented environmental protection peak shift production measures. The implementation of policies accelerated the pace of supply side reform, and the electrolytic aluminum industry entered a substantive stage of capacity reduction

the growth rate of most products has exceeded 10% due to the supply side reform. In the first half of 2016, Shanghai aluminum futures continued its strength in the second half of 2016, and the main contract fluctuated around 14500 yuan/ton. In the second half of the year, with the deepening of the supply side reform, illegal production capacity began to stop production, especially Weiqiao began to reduce production, and Shanghai Aluminum Co., Ltd. was sought after by funds and rapidly increased. On the other side of the aluminum price focus was the power plant that still kept a fixed inventory, trying to lower the acceptance price and make a significant upward breakthrough to 16000 yuan/ton. Superimposed on the expectation of environmental protection and production restriction in the heating season, Shanghai Aluminum Co., Ltd. reached a maximum of 17400 yuan/ton. However, due to the fact that the environmental protection production restriction in the heating season was less than expected, and at the same time, the downstream demand was restrained. Superimposed on the high inventory all the time, the aluminum price fell rapidly, reaching as low as 14100 yuan/ton, returning to the fundamentals

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the non-ferrous metals team of Nanhua futures said that with the implementation of the supply side reform, the investment in fixed assets in the non-ferrous industry has declined at an absolute level. In fact, the year-on-year growth rate of the completed amount of fixed assets in the non-ferrous industry has continued to decline since 2004. After october2015, the investment in fixed assets in the non-ferrous industry showed an absolute negative growth. According to the data as of November 2017, the year-on-year growth rate of the mining and dressing industry and smelting industry dropped to -21.3% and -4.6%. With the absolute reduction of capital investment, the industrial balance will accelerate and the price focus will move up to a reasonable level. From the perspective of the industry, non-ferrous metals will enter a pattern of easy rise but difficult fall in the coming years

a number of analysts interviewed agreed with the expectation of nickel price rise in 2018. Cinda futures nonferrous metals team said that in 2018 nonferrous metals investment, they tend to buy bullish nickel opportunities. Jichangqing, a researcher at China finance futures, also believes that nickel prices will move forward in a shock in 2018. The increase of demand will lead to the rise of nickel sulfate and pure nickel prices, and the price of nickel iron may fall due to the fall of demand growth (mainly from the fall of real estate). It is expected that in the first quarter of 2018, the nickel price will weaken but have a high probability of intensity. After the start-up in the second quarter and the implementation of the policies of all parties (new energy subsidies), there will be a big bull market in the nickel price

it is worth mentioning that with the upgrading of consumption, the development of new energy automobile industry will certainly enhance the demand expectation of non-ferrous metals. "From the perspective of the development trend of the new energy vehicle industry, it is roughly estimated that it can increase copper consumption by million tons. In addition, although the requirements of new energy vehicles to increase endurance mileage need to balance the economy between increasing battery consumption and increasing energy density, the good thing is that the price of cobalt in ternary lithium batteries is too high. In the future, the direction of battery improvement is to increase the consumption of nickel from 20% to 80%, which can not be ignored." Nanhua futures nonferrous metals team said