On the 9th, the steel market predicted that the bi

2022-10-23
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Steel market forecast on September 9: billet ore stabilized, steel spot consolidation dominated

I. macro briefing

1. Demand in the euro zone rebounded, and German manufacturing orders unexpectedly rose by 2.2% in March. Data released by the German Ministry of economy on May 7 showed that German manufacturing orders soared in March, driven by the rebound in demand in the euro zone. German manufacturing orders in March increased by 2.2% from the previous month, unchanged from the growth rate in February. Analysts had expected manufacturing orders to fall by 0.5% in March

2. The European Central Bank plans to purchase non-performing bank loans. According to Reuters, the European Central Bank is considering purchasing non-performing loans from southern European banks to activate the asset securitization (ABS) market in order to ease the pressure on banks in the region and improve the credit environment

3. The central government ticket will be reissued after 17 months, with a period of 3 months (91 days), and the circulation of 10billion yuan, releasing the signal of policy stability

the economic data of April and April will be released today: CPI may rise moderately, and PPI pressure will not decrease. According to the arrangement of the National Bureau of statistics, the consumer price index (CPI) and industrial producer price index (PPI) in April will be released this morning. Many institutions here predict that affected by the rising prices of vegetables and grain, the consumer price index (CPI) in April may rebound moderately to 2.2%-2.3%, and the trend of PPI may continue to explore on the basis of the decline in March, highlighting that the current economic growth is still weak

5. Both imports and exports have rebounded, and challenges and pressures remain under the momentum of foreign trade growth. The slight decline of PMI, the leading economic data of the "telescope", shows that although China's economy continues to stabilize, the foundation needs to be consolidated. Not long after, the import and export data released by the General Administration of Customs on May 8 showed that China's import and export situation continued to improve, and the momentum of macroeconomic stabilization continued

II. Relevant disk summary

the US stock market closed higher on Wednesday, and the S & P 500 index rose for the fifth consecutive trading day. The Dow and S & P hit new intraday and closing highs. The profit outlook of American art power and other enterprises was better than expected, which boosted market sentiment. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 49.0, but Ras researchers are working with Prof. Dr. Valentine P. ananikov to close at 15105.28, up 0.33%; The S & P 500 index rose 6.72 points, or 0.41%, to 1632.68. Gold futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $24.9 to close at $1473.7 per ounce. Crude oil futures for delivery in June rose $1 to close at $96.62 a barrel. The closing price of copper in LME was 7419 yuan/ton, up 154 yuan/ton from the previous trading day

III. billet price trend

morning of the 9th: Tangshan Pufang billet reported stability yesterday, and it was delivered to 3160 in Changli this morning. Tangshan Xinglong/Guoyi factory 3140 includes tax; The bare price of traders is about 3010; Yesterday, the bid price of Yangang Pu billet was 3130, down 3 from the previous period and 10 lower than the current market price

IV. ore price trend

yesterday, the domestic ore market operated smoothly, and the wait-and-see was still strong, and the market circulation resources in some areas were tight. The mainstream of the imported ore market is stable and the market activity is average. Short term manufacturers are not willing to take goods, and the overall transaction in the futures market is light. The mainstream market price of 66% acid powder dry basis excluding tax in Tangshan is 1090 yuan. At present, the mainstream quotation of 63.5/63% Indian fine ore in the external market of imported ore is about 120 US dollars. The quotation of 63.5% Indian fine ore in Tianjin port is 970 yuan/ton; The quotation of 61.5% PB fine ore in Qingdao port is 940 yuan/ton. People are willing to use a slightly higher price of new degradable materials for environmental protection

v. coke price trend

yesterday, Shanjiao introduced a price reduction policy, which eased the cost pressure of coke enterprises to a certain extent. However, due to the continuous downturn in steel prices, steel enterprises pressed prices significantly, and coke enterprises still focused on limiting production, short-term or continuous weak operation. The steel plant continues to suppress the purchase of the thermoplastic, which has a good high-temperature performance combination (RTI = 140 ° C) price. Compared with the low purchase price last year, there is still room to fall back, maintain the quantitative inventory operation, and do not significantly increase the purchase. At present, the first-class metallurgical coke in Shanxi is 1350 yuan/ton; The ex factory tax price of quasi first-class metallurgical coke is 1300 yuan; Hebei Handan secondary metallurgical coke 1340 yuan; The ex factory tax price of secondary metallurgical coke in Huaibei area is 1320 yuan; The ex factory tax price of secondary metallurgical coke in Zibo area is 1330 yuan

VI. close of thread hot coil

close on May 8, the closing price of 25mm grade III deformed steel bar in Beijing market was 3620 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; The price of grade III deformed steel bars in Shanghai market was 3520 yuan/ton, the same as that of the previous day; The third grade deformed steel bar in Guangzhou market was 3830 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day

at the close of May 8, the closing price of 5.5mmq235 hot rolled coil in Shanghai market was 3660 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; The closing price of hot coil in Tianjin market was 3560 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the price of the previous day; Lecong hot coil market closed at 3760 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the price of the day before yesterday

On May 8, 1310, the main contract of screw futures, opened lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day, and opened at 3625 yuan. After opening, it fluctuated higher, reaching a maximum of 3670 yuan and a minimum of 3622 yuan. Finally, it closed at 3669 yuan, up 42 yuan from the previous trading day, and finally closed at the positive line. The trading volume decreased compared with the previous trading day, and the position decreased by 17106. Today's price pressure point is expected to be 3700 yuan/ton, and the support point is expected to be 3600 yuan/ton

on May 8, rb1307, the main contract of hot coil electronic disk, opened at 3639 yuan. After the opening, it was shaken and sorted out. The highest was 3667 yuan, the lowest was 3635 yuan, and finally closed at 3665 yuan, up 17 yuan from the previous trading day, and finally closed at the positive line. The trading volume was 163230 hands, shrinking compared with the previous trading day, and the position was 176360 hands, an increase of 4160 hands. Today's price pressure point is expected to be 3720 yuan/ton, and the support point is expected to be 3630 yuan/ton

VIII. Spot price forecast

it is estimated that the price of 25mm grade III deformed steel bar in Beijing market today is stable, at 3620 yuan/ton; The quotation of grade III deformed steel bar in Shanghai market is stable, 3520 yuan/ton; The market price of grade III deformed steel bar in Guangzhou market is stable, and the quotation is 3830 yuan/ton

it is estimated that the mainstream quotation of 5.5mmq235 hot rolled coil in Shanghai market today is stable, at about 3660 yuan/ton; The listing price of hot coil in Tianjin market and the test method standard of 39 specific materials are stable, which is 3560 yuan/ton; Lecong's hot coil market quotation is stable, and the market quotation is about 3760 yuan/ton

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